Elizbeth SW Extension (ESE)

Journey Time Analysis

Method

Estimate speed of ESE
Use to calculate journey times of ESE routes
Find common journeys
Calculate journey time difference between using a route now available due to ESE

Speed Estimation

Using the current Elizabeth line, we can calculate the average speed of the line over areas with similar station density as ESE (stn/km)

Paddington - Reading

57.9Km 60min 57.94 Km/h

This section of the line has 15 stations over 57.9Km, giving it a station density of 0.259stn/km
ESE (Via Kingston) has a length of 23Km with 6 stations, giving it a station density of 0.260stn/km

Using this we can assume trains on the ESE will be able to travel at an average speed of ~55km/h including stops.

The Epsom branch will have fewer or equal station density, so speed estimate is still applicable.

Common routes

Primary data:

We collected some primary data by asking people in our area where and for what do they travel. The most common answers for start location in Wandsworth were:

Putney
Clapham
Wimbledon
Roehampton

End destinations were:

Soho
Fulham Broadway
Canary Wharf
Green park
Stratford

Secondary Data:

However these journeys may be biased (due to survey by location), and would not represent a lot of the journeys made by people in SW London and Surrey, so we used secondary data by examining where the jobs in London are mainly located, reaching the following conclusions (as locations people commute too for work)

The city (Farringdon, Liverpool street, Moorgate)
Canary Wharf
Westminster

Sources:

TFL transparency forum: (speed of Elizabeth line, speed of district line)

The Guardian: (Location and density of jobs within London)

Journey Time Calculations

Base journey times (most common journeys using ESE only):

Teddington - Paddington: ~1 hour -> 25 min

Kingston - Paddington: ~1 hour -> 22 min

Wimbledon - Paddington: ~31 min -> 14 min

Putney - Paddington: ~22 min -> 9 min

Earls court - Paddington: 10 min -> 5 min

Wimbledon - Fulham Broadway: 14 min-> 9 min

Epsom - Paddington: ~1 hour -> 31 min Station density likely to be inaccurate for this route

We can use these times to calculate the times of longer journeys, by taking time taken currently to get too start station (at ESE), add base journey time, and for journeys further along the Elizabeth line, add on the time taken to get from Paddington to there. We will not include the transfer times for this (just train ride time) due to the lack of a need for a transfer of trains should the project be completed. Other timings will be taken from google maps using the "arrive by" feature, too remove waiting time for initial train as frequent journeys will be planned like this.

Data Collection:

This was done using the google maps API for current journey times, and a simple python program too calculate new journey times using the numbers already calculated.

Currently:

After ESE:

Elizabeth line journey times (from Paddington):

Tottenham... Rd: 5 min

Farringdon: 8 min

Liverpool Street: 11 min

Moorgate: 12 min

Canary Wharf: 17 min

Stratford: 18 min

These routes (no changes) are on average 49% quicker, however some journeys have been reduced by 65%+.

Common commuter routes involving changing onto ESE:

Clapham Junction (overground) - Paddington (via Earls court): 12 min

Balham (Southern) - Paddington (via Earls court): 17 min

Sutton (Thames link) - Paddington (via Wimbledon) : 35 min

Conclusions

ESE journey times:

Italics are journeys involving changes.

In conclusion, the ESE branch line too Teddington alone will reduce journey times from residential hubs in SW London to job hubs across London by 40-70%.
49.8% decrease on average for journeys on the line alone.

37.2% decrease on average for journeys using other lines to get onto ESE (surrounding areas of SW London)

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